Key Market Takeaways
Inventory: New listings saw double-digit month-over-month declines (-18% for houses, -15% for condos), keeping overall inventory constrained across Los Angeles.
Sales: Closed sales dropped significantly from the previous month (-11% for houses, -19% for condos) as buyers and sellers stepped back during late summer.
Pricing: Despite high mortgage rates, Los Angeles home prices remain resilient, with median prices holding steady or showing slight year-over-year gains (+3% for houses, +2% for condos).
DEEP DIVE: SEPTEMBER 2026 MARKET ANALYSIS
Market Overview
Buyers and sellers really checked out in August. These are substantial MoM decreases, the kind you don't often see. Last year was similar, but not to this extent, as it's becoming more common here in LA for people to check out during the summer months.
Houses | Year-over-Year (YoY) | Month-over-Month (MoM) |
Houses for Sale | -9% | -6% |
New Listings | -8% | -18% |
Houses in Escrow | -7% | -10% |
Closed Sales | -1% | -11% |
Median Sale Price | +3% | -1% |
In true supply-and-demand economics, because there isn't much inventory for buyers to choose from, Los Angeles home prices are holding steady. And this is despite mortgage rates over the past couple of months staying in the 6%’s. I have big news about rates later in the report.
Condos | Year-over-Year (YoY) | Month-over-Month (MoM) |
Condos for Sale | +2% | -3% |
New Listings | +2% | -15% |
Condos in Escrow | -12% | -11% |
Closed Sales | -13% | -19% |
Median Sale Price | +2% | +1% |
Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding the condo market, prices are holding steady, with prices almost flat over the past 4 months.
Mortgage Rates
Unfortunately, mortgage rates are officially in the 7%’s. As of writing, the 30-year fixed is 7.07%, and the 30-year jumbo is 7.20%. ARMs are noticeably better and still in the 6%’s, but still at 12-month highs. This is mostly tied to the conflict in the Middle East and how that is affecting inflation. Despite all the pressure Trump is putting on the Fed to lower rates, the Fed has to be very careful not to encourage inflation by lowering rates. Plus, Treasury Secretary Bessent's expanded bond buyback plan hasn't convinced investors, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back to its highest level since late 2023, when mortgage rates were in the 7-8%'s.
If you want to know what the Fed is going to do before the Fed announcement, this tool is accurate most of the time: FedWatch - CME Group.
And I made this video last year explaining how this tool works: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91WVs539LTA
As of writing, the tool places a 70% chance of a rate increase next week. CPI data will be released tomorrow, and if that comes in hot, that will almost cement a Fed rate increase next week.
California Fair Plan Increases
Insurance premiums will, on average, increase by about 30% starting October 15 this year. Some high-fire-danger homes will see bigger increases. The cost of living is already really high, and for homeowners already struggling, this will be hard to handle. In most cases, homeowners on the Fair Plan don’t have any other choice. So it’s either pay the increase or don’t have insurance. We desperately need insurance reform in this state.
Wet Winter
Some of you would have received an email from me about the possibility of this winter being one of the wettest on record, or at the very least above average, and how that can affect your home. If you didn’t get the email and you want to be prepared, you can read it here.
Capital Gains Exemption Increase
Some good news: momentum is building to increase the capital gains tax exemption on primary residences from $250,000 to $500,000 for single people and from $500,000 to $1 million for married couples. This still has hurdles to clear before making it to Congress, but more lawmakers are backing the change. No date has been set yet for a vote on the bill.
Coming Soon Homes
I know of several new construction projects that will be finished by the end of the year. If you or someone you know is looking for a new construction house on the westside, reach out.
Palisades
Inventory increased last month for land sales in the Palisades, and the median sale price dropped significantly. Closed sales increased MoM, but remain below the year-to-date average. A new construction house at 14816 Drummond St in the Alphabet Streets sold last month. I don’t believe this was a direct result of the fires, as the seller purchased the property in 2024 and their plans were approved at the end of 2024. However, it is one of the first new builds to sell in the neighborhood.
Click below to follow the Palisades land market in real time on the MLS. It’s an active link that will update with the current day's data.
https://www.themls.com/MarketSnapshot/T/YWFhYWJmamRi
More Market Data
Head over to my website if you get a kick out of this market report. Scroll down to the market data and wait for the data to load.
https://shanewillcox.com/market-report
And, of course, reach out anytime!
FAQS
Are Los Angeles home prices falling?
No. In true supply-and-demand economics, because there isn't much inventory for buyers to choose from, Los Angeles home prices are holding steady despite elevated mortgage rates.
What is the current trend for mortgage rates?
Rates have risen into the 7% range. Driven by global events, bond market yields, and persistent concerns over inflation, interest rates remain at 12-month highs.
How will the upcoming California Fair Plan rate changes affect homeowners?
Significantly. Homeowners enrolled in the California Fair Plan will see premiums increase by an average of 30% starting October 15, with higher-risk property owners facing even steeper increases.
